The current decline in the price of gold may seem illogical, but in fact it is well explained

24. 03. 2026

Mgr. Ing. Filip Horáček, Ph.D., Sales Director

The conflict in Iran is pushing up oil and energy prices, creating inflationary pressures. Central banks are responding to these by raising interest rates. Higher rates in turn increase the attractiveness of US bonds and strengthen the US dollar, which pushes the price of gold down in the short term.

However, if this situation persists for a longer period of time, the opposite effect may occur. Long-term high energy prices support inflation and, in combination with high rates, can lead to an economic downturn – stagflation. This is usually associated with a decline in real yields and a gradual easing of monetary policy, which, on the contrary, benefits gold.

To put it simply:

in the short term, the pressure of a strong dollar is exerted,
inflation and geopolitical risks have a long-term effect.

If the tensions persist, the current decline may prove to be an interesting buying opportunity.

This is also consistent with the estimates of large financial institutions. JP Morgan expects a gold price of USD 6,300 by the end of 2026, Bank of America is working with a target of USD 6,000, BNP Paribas is expecting a USD 6,250 and Wells Fargo range of USD 6,100 to USD 6,300.

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