Why gold is no longer just a hedge, but the core of a portfolio

Today, gold is not rising simply because investors have given in to fear. On the contrary, its performance reflects systematic changes in the global financial environment. Central banks around the world continue record-level purchases of gold, confidence in fiat currencies is gradually weakening, and the traditional 60/40 investment model — a combination of equities and bonds — is no longer fulfilling its stabilizing function as reliably as it once did.

In an environment of rising public debt, geopolitical uncertainty, and persistent inflationary pressures, it is becoming evident that bonds may not always perform their traditional role as a stabilizing element against equity market fluctuations. This is precisely why an increasing number of investors are seeking assets that are not directly dependent on monetary policy or the performance of traditional financial markets. Gold is therefore returning to the center of attention as a real asset with global trust.

 

“Today, gold no longer serves merely as a supplementary asset in a portfolio.” — Mgr. Ing. Filip Horáček, Ph.D., Sales Director, IBIS InGold

As our Sales Director, Mgr. Ing. Filip Horáček, Ph.D., has long pointed out, the very rules of diversification are changing. Rather than serving only as a guide in turbulent times, gold is becoming a stable core of the portfolio — capable of protecting wealth while also increasing its value during periods of heightened uncertainty.

 

Gold price forecasts for 2026 confirm the shift

Outlooks from major investment banks and analysts for 2026 support this strengthened role of gold:

• Goldman Sachs forecasts that the price of gold could reach approximately USD 4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 in its base scenario, based on continued central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
• J.P. Morgan sees even greater potential, with prices around USD 5,055 per ounce in the final quarter of 2026, as the combination of falling interest rates, concerns over fiscal sustainability, and investor diversification creates a favorable environment for precious metals.
• Morgan Stanley expects prices to rise to approximately USD 4,800 per ounce by the end of 2026, emphasizing that even slower growth would still represent a significant positive trend.

These forecasts indicate that gold continues to be viewed as a bullish asset with growth potential, even during periods when the market may experience short-term corrections or volatility.

 

Recommendations for the individual investor

For the individual investor, the following applies:

• Gold is not a difficult-to-understand speculation. It is an asset that responds to fundamental factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, high deficits, a weakening dollar, concerns about inflation, as well as shifts in global power dynamics and the changing position of world economies.
• Long-term gold holdings provide stability and wealth protection, even at times when traditional assets such as equities and bonds may exhibit higher volatility.
• Experts often recommend allocating a portion of the portfolio (for example, 5–10%) to gold in order to achieve better diversification and protection against unexpected market shocks. Others openly speak of a much higher percentage share (20–40%).

 

Why 2025 is not a peak, but a transition to a new era

So far, 2025 does not appear to be the definitive end of the so-called “gold cycle,” but rather a transitional period in which investors increasingly reassess the role of real assets in their portfolios. It is a shift toward a new investment paradigm in which real assets such as gold once again play a key role in protecting and growing wealth over the long term. Gold is moving from a marginal alternative to a strategic component of modern portfolios — and this shift represents one of the most significant investment trends of our time.